Gambling on elections?


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Persuasion master Donald Trump has, according to trained hypnotist Scott Adams of Dilbert fame, fissioned into two personae. Redneck Trump, The Don, is the loudmouthed, life-begins-at-erection jerk so inspiring to teevee viewers who have never cracked a book. Centrist Trump is a serious, shape-shifting, non-dogmatic debater able change his mind to fit evidence and no longer convinced women must be threatened with criminal liability and forced at gunpoint to reproduce.

Trump’s businesslike response to loss of female customer base reveals The Don as someone able to think on his feet and adjust to measurements and feedback from reality. The shift also signals to captains of banking and industry that Trump is not just another prohibitionist baboon eager to embark on a campaign of “concurrent” state and federal prohibition enforcement. The last such campaign completely wrecked the home loan industry via civil asset forfeiture of subprime-market grow houses in states where marijuana is illegal. The crash drove money out of banks and securities markets, causing a Herbert Hoover/George Bush liquidity crisis and depression.

Trump’s pre-Indiana transformation from bigot to grownup is lost on primary-voting morons. But the holy roller and televangelist candidates peddling fetus forfeiture laws to please “Warriors For the Babies” are already off the chessboard with no turning back. Casino owners think in probability terms, so the probability spread Trump needs to overcome today is 0.42 in a zero-sum game. To shift five points Trump needs the support of a sophisticated, literate crowd–the support of men of culture, means and learning capable of reaching back to their preppie days and grasping an analogous situation–not from Gilligan’s Island or Bonanza, but from Stratford-upon-Avon, where “liberal” stands for low-tax laissez-faire worldliness. When educated men are confronted with the apparent reformation of a wily rogue, what comes to mind?

So, when this loose behaviour I throw off
And pay the debt I never promisèd,
By how much better than my word I am,
By so much shall I falsify men’s hopes;
And like bright metal on a sullen ground,
My reformation, glitt’ring o’er my fault,
Shall show more goodly and attract more eyes
Than that which hath no foil to set it off.
–Prince Harry in Henry IV Part 1, or
–Donald Trump in Republican primaries?

1932banksuspensionsGOP heavies realize that as reason replaces faith in These States, superstitious prohibitionists whose policies cause depressions have become a political liability–as in the campaign of 1932. They also realize that pro-choice LP spoiler votes have cost them many seats. So what would explain the GOP’s expense and effort of creating the antiabortion Tea and Constitution Parties to replace the Prohibition Party as its eminence grise, and recent dogged infiltration of the LP by starry-eyed YAFfers in Ron Paul T-shirts?

 

Dilemma 1: What if two can play? What if an anti-choice “libertarian” candidate were to surf in on a wave of turncoat GOP/YAF rats abandoning the floundering prohibitionist hulk, and secure the Libertarian nomination? Suppose the candidate, like Trump, were to suddenly decide that women are individuals, just like the Constitution and the laws say they are? What if Austin Petersen is not a fifth-column mole sent in to transform the LP into a fifth antichoice party? Suppose Petersen, like Trump, is poised to abandon the initiation of force and–reformation glittering over fault–realize that women, pregnant or not have the same individual rights as men?

The GOP has nothing to lose, but is bait-and-switch a gamble worth taking for a rising party that has already achieved constitution-changing spoiler vote clout?

Dilemma 2: What if an angry GOP wants to temporarily replace the Prohi, Tea and other antichoice parties with a compliant, woman-menacing LP, and eliminate future LP competition by wrecking our credibility?

If the Libertarian party were to join the Prohibition Party’s plank reassigning women a condition of involuntary servitude in violation of the 13th and 14th Amendments, that would forever relegate us–with that Prohibition Party and its Republican, Tea and “Constitution” party clones–to the dustbin of history.

Safer to stick with Gary Johnson, whose two terms as Governor of NM have done him proud, and whose past campaign–whatever its weaknesses–brought us an uptick in hefty, law-changing spoiler votes with no disasters. Gary has become important enough in American politics to even pop up on Google’s radar. Check it out… Compare the comments on him to the comments on Trump, Hillary and the DemoGOP in general before you vote.

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