This is a simplified way to use a spreadsheet to approximate the lag phase of the sigmoid curve modeling the growth of the Libertarian Party. An online solver to worked to approximate this in the past, and the curve it produced looked a lot like this one. These curves are what election fraud forensics investigators use to test whether systematic tampering has occurred in elections, so you can see right away this sort of curve has practical applications. Petr Beckmann, PhD in Math and Electrical Engineering, recommended these curves in the July 1976 Access to Energy, and the book by Fisher, Energy crises in perspective, Wiley, 1974, which I cannot find. But how hard could it be?
The curve itself is spelt out with brisk alacrity as the Sigmoid Function on a Wolfram website.(link) Yet amid all the integrals, derivatives and Diff Eqs, there is not a single unit of measure to be had. All examples everywhere are of tree growth, Norway rats and how to use Chat GTP to deal with chicks–all extremes and no middle ground–like the Library in Hell made up entirely of Story Problem books. Greg Dunn, my long-suffering math tutor, suggested an alternative from the worlds of nuclear fallout and of finance and compound interest relevant to how vote share increases over the course of 13 election campaigns spanning 50 years: the Rule of 76. Here’s the plan:
The rule of 76 is useful in this case. To go from 4000 to 4 mil the number of votes would have to double about 10 times in 39 years or once every 3.9 years. 76/3.9 is aprox. 19. 4%. Open a spreadsheet and in 1A enter 1972, copy down incrementing 1 for each year up to 2011. In 1B enter 4000. In 2B enter “=(1b)*1.194. Copy down to the row of 2011. I got 4.029 mil.Private correspondence
This worked. I changed the initial number to 1.172. The nice thing about spreadsheets is you can tweak and fiddle with them, like a lawyer leading a witness, and get the approximation you want. That tweak to the curve in the top image gives Gary Johnson 3,962,631 votes for the 2016 election. But Al Smith would say “Let’s look at the record.” The curve for this model gets all the other election counts wrong except the starting point where they say we got 3674–and the first electoral vote ever gotten by a woman in a national election. Here’s how reality stacks up against simple models:
Every picture tells a story. This one tells us women voters appreciated the LP having written the key verbiage that–like the Thirteenth Amendment–provided protection against the involuntary servitude of forced reproduction.(link) Even Canada benefited by the example and soon formed its own LP.(link) But that 12% per annum vote growth had to be gotten rid of. When Klan terrorists were lynching and intimidating black voters after the Civil War, Treasury agents infiltrated and testified. When Hitler’s National Socialists invaded Hollywood and Boston, Jewish volunteers infiltrated their organizations to bring them down.(link)
This works both ways. The Looter Kleptocracy calling itself the Republican and Democratic parties is constantly infiltrated by agents, bigots and foreign influencers and does its own infiltrating to cut down on competition. They’d be fools not to, and we should have expected no less. The Libertarian party was instantly attacked by Bakuninistic anarchists like Murray Rothbard, of Mises Caucus deification, who practically wet himself with glee every time communist sloganeering replaced originalist Libertarian Platform language. Republicans and Democrats watched this with delicately suppressed chuckles of joy, but individualist women voters were not favorably impressed. When Reagan Republicans moved to reinstate Comstockist enslavement of women, the LP deleted individual rights for women from the platform–our booming vote share growth was instantly crippled. Only when it was too late–after God’s Own Prohibitionists packed the courts with mystical bigots–did voters wake up to the law-changing spoiler vote clout that WROTE Roe v Wade in the first place.(link) But the girl-bulliers saw that coming as well.
The LP needs volunteers conversant with logistics-curve spoiler-clout math, not whining anarco-pinkos or shellshocked MAGA rejects. Interestingly, there is an entire area of sigmoid curve math, the Volterra-Lotka equations, preoccupied mainly with predator-prey substitution scenarios. We don’t call it the looter Kleptocracy for nothing; those factions are nothing if not predatory aggressors, and blinkering the realization only makes the fact more dangerous.
Get the complete story in Prohibition and The Crash on Amazon Kindle in two languages. After this you’ll be able to explain to economists exactly how fanaticism and loss of freedom wrecked the U.S. economy.
Prohibition and The Crash, on Amazon Kindle
Brazilian Sci-fi from 1926 featuring the usual beautiful daughter of a scientist touting prohibition and racial collectivism in America’s Black President 2228 by Monteiro Lobato, translated by J Henry Phillips (link)
I also produce books and articles in Portuguese, using Brazilian historical sources at http://www.expatriotas.blogspot.com or amigra.us
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- Tagged change, freedom, improvement, libertarian, political clout, repeal, spoiler votes