Climate data v. Reason magazine

 

A thought experiment for congregants of Misanthropic Global Warming. Data since 1900 show a decreasing temperature trend and an exploding population..

People are easier to count than tenths of a degree

Common Era Population Growth

Reason magazine has added a mathless science guy to our sources of documendacity, someone Zack evidently listens to.(link) The story is that although untampered data show no warming trend, warmunist scientist impersonators at the State Science Institute and Ministry of Truth have altered temperature data records cooling the past so as to create an apparent warming trend where thermometers say none exists.(link) (link)

This is another mutation of the 1960 Soviet prediction that unless greedy egoism is again disarmed (by a new set of Kristallnacht laws), we’re all gonna die.(link) Preceding that was Thomas Malthus, who–shortly after the calculus was developed and became widespread–predicted too soon a catastrophe based on 18th century technology and a linear hypothesis. Because Malthus and Paul Ehrlich both made math errors–the story goes–there is no problem, and anyone apprehensive about a population increasing vertically at 220,000 people a day on a planet of constant surface area is deluded. This is, again, too hasty a generalization.(link)

The math is not all that simple, granted.(link) But the second derivative (rate of change of rate of change) of the population growth curve changed sign in the early sixties–with birth control pills. Data show such a change happened twice before, in the mid-1300s when the Black Death spread from Asia to Europe, then again in secondary bubonic plague epidemics in the 15th and 16th centuries.

The second derivative went from positive to negative and the population curve itself did the same, albeit briefly, after nearly half of everyone died (some 200 million), then again because another 150 million or so died out of a population of about 600 million. The changes were quick because only a small fraction as many people existed when the plagues hit. Later, WWI and influenza made an almost invisible wobble in the data sequence.(link)

The pill was widespread when Reason became a thing, yet our second derivative had gone from positive to negative shortly before with 3.5 billion people alive. Now, after a half-century of growing less steep (after 11,950 years of steepening) the growth curve is still all but vertical and population increases by 7 million people a month. Even though that rate of change in the rate of change has been mainly decreasing since Hospers and Nathan were LP candidates and population was increasing by 76 million a year, world population is currently increasing by 80 million a year and will continue to increase for another century we get to zero population growth–barring some Malthusian disaster.

Nuclear electricity (as the reason article acknowledges) if freed of coercive strangulation, could enable humanity to continue along mathematical curves. If aggressive coercion prevails, nuclear and biological weapons can distort the curve to look like we’d been broadsided by bubonic plague or Great Leap Forward. During economic collapse, death rates can change really fast.(link)

Banking systems can also change pretty fast under coercive duress–this occurred in the 1920s.

Find out the juicy details behind the mother of all economic collapses, and how its causes changed the laws. Prohibition and The Crash–Cause and Effect in 1929 is available in two languages on Amazon Kindle, each at the cost of a pint of craft beer.

Brazilian blog

North Carolina LP Growth

Roe v Wade Libertarian victory

Pro-choice NC Libertarian Party performance

by Brad Hessel, copied from their Facebook page
Another year, another new all-time record for the Libertarian Party of North Carolina.

In a year in which the number of registered voters overall in NC declined by 4%—due to the usual off-election year purge of inactive voters—the number of registered Libertarians edged up 3% to a new all-time high of 39,631 as of the end of 2019. In contrast, the number of Democrats declined 7% year-over-year, Republicans lost 4%, and even the number of independent (“unaffiliated”) voters declined by 1%.

The 2019 purge was the second biggest in the last 26 years (as far back as our annual data go), exceeded only by a 5% reduction in the voter rolls in 2001. The declines were the worst ever for the Ds, second worst ever for the Us, and tied for second worst for the Rs during that time span. It was also the slowest annual growth rate recorded for the LPNC (excepting the three years we were off the ballot, the number of registered Ls in NC has never declined year-over-year).

Bucking the trend were the two new parties: the number of Green party members was up 90% in 2019 to 1,938 and the Constitutionalists did even better, up 217% to 2,786. The Greens—who had a head start in 2018—started the year ahead of the Constitutionalists, but are now decidedly eating the latters’ dust.

Looking at the entire quarter century, the LPNC continues to lead the pack with a robust compounded annual growth rate of 14% compared to 8% for independents, 2% for Republicans, and 1% for Democrats. The Rs and Ds are consistently failing to keep pace with the overall 3% CAGR for the number of voters. The Democrats have grown slower/declined faster than the overall number of voters 25 out of the last 26 years, only beating the average in 2008 thanks to Barack Obama. The Republicans have beaten the average 11 times…but their last win was in 2004 and they are currently on a 15-year losing streak.

Overall, the percentage of voters registered as either D or R—the “Ubinger rating”—fell to an all-time low of 66.58% at the end of 2019, down (as it has been every year for 26 years in a row) from 91.87% in 1993. ***

Libertarian organizations like the NCLP are what brought us the pro-choice hockey stick vote share growth tracked by Fisher-Pry and other logistic growth curves.

History shows us that a growing small party gets its platform plagiarized by both halves of the entrenched kleptocracy. Every time votes flow away from a decayed and derelict political party, its swineherds get the message no amount of self-deception can distort.  Laws change as a result. The technical term for causing the looters to change bad laws is winning.

Find out the juicy details behind the mother of all economic collapses, and how its causes changed the laws. Prohibition and The Crash–Cause and Effect in 1929 is available in two languages on Amazon Kindle, each at the cost of a pint of craft beer.

Brazilian blog