Tag Archives: changing laws

Hedging Election Bets

Zerohedge was de-planked by Twit Committee on Un-Chinese Activities

Everyone–the entire Nixon-law-subsidized looter media and even the bookies– said Hillary’s party would win and force us to keep phone-blocking telehasslers shoving socialized health insurance night and day.  Why didn’t it happen? One solution comes to mind. 

You know how hedging works. You buy a futures contract in X and another one in Y to offset possible losses from drought, strikes and whatnot. I suspect the GOP is using the Nixon-subsidized media to shriek Trump is losing in hopes of a sandbagging effect based on the Social Pressure theory of 1955. Televangelists whose spoiler votes Republicans fear predictably shriek Armageddon and Antichrist to rally the Faithful to Stand against the commie Satan–or be scythed by fanatical spoiler votes cast instead for the Prohibition Party. Now, here comes the good part.

Since Nixon bought them in 1971, the media are known panderers. Suppose I wanted Trump’s party to win. I would cultivate gloating predictions of Kamala’s victory, let those soak into the betting odds by pari-mutuel (not actuarial) math. I’d then send my chauffeur to deliver $10,000 to the Trump campaign, and bet another $20,000 that Trump will lose. This is hedging.

If The Don wins, I’m out $30,000 but am owed favors from the mixed-economy winners; favors worth infinitely more. If The Don loses, Irish bookies pay me back $28,888, so I make back nearly 9 thousand over what I risked even though the candidate I backed by donating ten grand didn’t win.(link)

I’d get back almost all of my large donation to Boss Trump, but could still brag to Daddy Warbucks that I gave ten grand. Gamblers and market investors understand all this with the clarity necessary to confidently put that kind of money on the line. 

The looters won’t let me vote by mail, but I have sent donations to the Dallas LP and a couple of Libertarian candidates. I would gladly bet on this election and recoup my donations to the LP. For Libertarians this is a free rider opportunity not to be missed. It’s like Mr Chekov said on Star Trek: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me!”

The Dems already copied Libertarian repeal verbiage and discarded Biden’s shoot-the-kids prohibitionism, but I still expect the Dems to lose based on their promise to make electricity as unaffordable as it is in North Korea. Do you see now why looter legislators go to so much trouble to outlaw betting?  

Incidentally, Paddypower now has a cap on how much you can bet on Trump. This means the bookies are themselves hedging their losses against another Boss Trump victory.

This is your 12th chance to vote Libertarian or sanction coercion and cops shooting kids. Which will it be? 

Make your vote MATTER for a change! Listen to what our opponents say about each other and remember all that at the ballot box.

She’s with Us!

Brazilian Sci-fi from 1926 featuring the usual beautiful daughter of a scientist touting prohibition and racial collectivism in America’s Black President 2228 by Monteiro Lobato, translated by J Henry Phillips (link)

Three dollars on Amazon Kindle

Find out the juicy details behind the mother of all economic collapses. Prohibition and The Crash–Cause and Effect in 1929 is available in two languages on Amazon Kindle, each at the cost of a pint of craft beer.

Brazilian blog…

The Looter Kleptocracy has evidently pressured media companies such as WordPress to make blogging as difficult as possible before the election. Twelve million libertarian votes would go a long way toward removing new impediments to blogging and restoring the usual formatting tools.

This is your 12th opportunity

What (not who) will you vote for?

 In 1840 your male vote for Northern Democrats said “rob me;” for Whigs said “raise import tariffs,” and for Southern Dems said “rape black women and beat the men to death.” Your vote said one or the other. 

In 1860 there were no more Federalists or Whigs, only high-tariff spenders on improvement and primitive rapists and bulliers of slaves.  Your male vote said either “protective tariff” or “secede from the monopolistic high-tariff Customs Union.”

In 1880 your male vote could say “arrest, tax and rob people over whiskey and beer” and “bully them for Jesus,” or “bring back White Supremacy,” or “tax and rob people for communism.” That was the third-party alternative. 

In 1900 your male vote could say “make war, raise tariffs and ban liquor and drugs,” or “White Supremacy but no sumptuary laws,” or “tax and rob people for communism.” All three alternatives required coercion.

In 1920 your vote could say “White Supremacy and sumptuary laws” or “sumptuary taxes, confiscation and imprisonment,” or “tax and rob people for communism.” All three alternatives required the initiation of force.

FINALLY in 1972 your vote could say “White Supremacy and sumptuary laws” or  “conscription, bombing, fascism and Comstockism,” or “replace the initiation of force with freedom and individual rights for women!” For the first time ever, spoiler clout leverage worked in favor of freedom and against coercion at gunpoint. The LP got under 4000 presidential votes then, and over 4.5 million in 2016. That’s an increase of a factor of 1100 over the course of 44 years in which the world population doubled.

Now that we still have such a clean cut alternative, in 2020 you may for the 12th time choose one of 3 alternatives on the ballot in every state: You may vote to “endorse Nixon fascism,” or “endorse Eurasian communism” or “increase freedom by reducing coercion!” Two of these choices are the same as asking to be whipped, paddled and humiliated. Only one tells politicians that you have enough dignity to recognize and enforce your own individual rights and the rights of others. 

This is your 12th chance to vote Libertarian or sanction coercion. Which will it be? 

Make your vote MATTER for a change!

She’s with Us!

Brazilian Sci-fi from 1926 featuring the usual beautiful daughter of a scientist touting prohibition and racial collectivism in America’s Black President 2228 by Monteiro Lobato, translated by J Henry Phillips (link)

Three dollars on Amazon Kindle

Find out the juicy details behind the mother of all economic collapses. Prohibition and The Crash–Cause and Effect in 1929 is available in two languages on Amazon Kindle, each at the cost of a pint of craft beer.

Brazilian blog…

The Looter Kleptocracy has evidently pressured media companies such as WordPress to make blogging as difficult as possible before the election. Twelve million libertarian votes would go a long way toward removing new impediments to blogging and restoring the usual formatting tools.

Repeal Victimless Usurpations

 

If either Kleptocracy party wants to “win,” its platform should include repeal, decriminalize and expunge. Tarl tells it like it is, but leaves out the relative law-changing clout of Libertarian spoiler versus Kleptocracy bootlicking votes.(link)

Remember Jerome Tuccille? He was a Libertarian candidate back about 1976, and wrote “It Usually Begins with Ayn Rand,” which I recommend.(link) He also wrote a Trump bio I haven’t read. But the important thing was the lesson he learned as a candidate. Every vote cost $6 in campaign spending at that time. Converting to current dollars, all else held constant, today’s votes would cost $36 apiece in 2020 dollars. 

It's a hard rain...

Spoiler vote replacement effect

So if I were to waste a vote on the Dem or GOP platform promises, that 0.00000007% of the vote total would accrue to the benefit of one or the other looter party as $36 worth. But the Libertarian party vote growth rate in 2016 was increasing at a slope of 1.2, which is an angle of 50 degrees, accelerating rapidly. This rapid growth imparts extra law-changing heft to each libertarian vote–heft that does not require that our candidates be sworn in. 

But Libertarian candidates did win 73 races last year, a palpable drain of money away from Kleptocracy coffers and an enormous decrease in their effective social pressure.(link) Their party mathematicians are painfully aware of these facts–especially the fact that when the LP.org vote share is larger than the difference between their “winner” and “loser,” the probability projections for their loot, pelf and boodle go out the window. Libertarian spoiler votes pack roughly 20x the law-changing clout of bootlicking Kleptocracy votes. So on average, LP spoiler votes are worth $720 apiece. If you instead vote Kleptocracy you are throwing away $684 worth of vote clout!

 

Nixon almost lost when girl-bullying racial collectivists handed George Wallace the electoral votes for four Dixiecrat States. Wallace, like JFK, was quickly riddled with bullets, which was the equivalent of a Chappaquiddick incident for nomination purposes.(link) The GOP absorbed the Klan and broke up the Solid South. On their third confrontation with the Libertarian Party–whose 1972 plank was rewritten as the Roe v Wade decision, Dems in 1980 plunked for subsidized birth control (link) rather than the Libertarian solution of deregulating the medical cartel. Their open borders preference for flowers and granola to repel Soviet nuclear attacks did them in.

NOW the Dems and God’s Own Prohibitionists(link) are realizing how spoiler votes change election outcomes, and whining lest your vote benefit YOUR FREEDOM rather than some looter politician’s hand in your pocket! Ain’t that something? Listen to what the looter parties say about each other and remember all that on election day!

Withholding sex?

Racial collectivism AND shooting your kids?

No thanks. We’re with Jo Jorgensen, why? 

She's with Us!

She’s with Us!

Brazilian Sci-fi from 1926 featuring the usual beautiful daughter of a scientist touting prohibition and racial collectivism in America’s Black President 2228 by Monteiro Lobato, translated by J Henry Phillips (link)

Three dollars on Amazon Kindle

Find out the juicy details behind the mother of all economic collapses. Prohibition and The Crash–Cause and Effect in 1929 is available in two languages on Amazon Kindle, each at the cost of a pint of craft beer.

Brazilian blog…

 

 

Libertarian Party 20 years ago

We're still here, growing at 80% a year!

See the original newspaper (link)

The Southeast Missourian, July 3, 2000, page 5 of 56 = page 8A
Libertarians Nominate Browne for Second Run (AP) ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – More than 1000 libertarians gathered at the party’s national convention on Sunday nominated Harry Browne, their 1996 candidate for president, to run again in 2000.
The 67-year-old investment banker from Nashville Tennessee acknowledged he has little chance of winning the presidency. He said he hoped his campaign would reinvigorate what was formerly the nation’s top third-party.


“We’re the only political party that’s offering to set you free,” Browne said. “It’s the most powerful political message in the world.”


Officials with the Libertarian party claims some 30,000 dues-paying members. It also identifies itself as the biggest third-party movement in the United States.
However, the party has lacked the star power of the Reform Party and the Green Party in recent years.
Browne finished fifth in 1996, behind Reform Party candidate Ross Perot, and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, garnering less than 1% of the national vote.
He has proposed a program that would eliminate income taxes, Social Security, the war on drugs and federal welfare.
Competing against Browne were: Don Gorman of Deerfield New Hampshire, a former four-term New Hampshire state legislator; Barry Hess, a salesman from Phoenix Arizona; David Hollist, a charter bus driver from Alta Loma, California; and Jacob Hornberger, president of the future of freedom foundation, a think tank in Fairfax, Virginia. 

She's with Us! Libertarian candidate 2020

She’s With Us!

Brazilian Sci-fi from 1926 featuring the usual beautiful daughter of a scientist touting prohibition and racial collectivism in America’s Black President 2228 by Monteiro Lobato, translated by J Henry Phillips (link)

Three dollars on Amazon Kindle

Find out the juicy details behind the mother of all economic collapses. Prohibition and The Crash–Cause and Effect in 1929 is available in two languages on Amazon Kindle, each at the cost of a pint of craft beer.

Brazilian blog…